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Friday, November 2nd 2007

9:30 AM

Financial and Economic Gaming

This week the Job and Growth Reports hit the media with a bang.  The report claimed growth of creating 166,000 new jobs, while unemployment remained the same at 4.7. GDP reports growth at a rate of 3.9. The DOW continued it’s up and down ride.  The Economy is reportedly doing very well. With the great economic news being reported, one would expect to see a booming Holiday shopping season.

 The Fed Chairman Mr. Benjamin Barnanke cut the rate a quarter point. Most in the economic news world had been forecasting exactly that. Claiming another cut was needed to keep the economy growing at a steady pace. Once the fed chair reported the actual rate cut, the news changed. Economist started to speculate that Mr. Bernanke must be envisioning a looming economic recession. With high oil prices there has to be price increases coming across the board. The stock market had major losses the next day due to the escalating housing problem and increased oil price gains.

 I’m not an economist but recent trends would lend to the thought of gaming the system. The GDP number and Job Gains number came in better than expected. Now the news showing are starting to tote this higher than expected growth and a strong vibrant economy. While others are reporting consumer spending to be slowing due to the looming high heating cost. Goods and services prices are on a rise, while the housing foreclosure problem is constantly reportedly getting worse.

There is also reported to be skepticism in Wall Street investors.
Months ago the stock market was in need of a boost to help stop it’s down trend. The fed came to the rescue with a half point cut. The stock market began to once again see daily gains. For many weeks the market constantly reached new record highs. Even when the housing crunch was first reported the market stayed strong. Lenders began to have major problems, but with the economy being so strong and resilient, the market continued to make record gains. The president reported better than expected growth. The growth was so great that the deficit would come in with a lower than expected number.

 With all the great news, Wall Street investors should not be skeptics. There should be no looming recession. More rate cuts should not become a necessity. Mr. Bush is giving speeches on how his economic policy has worked to build the strongest economy in 20 years. Growth is much better than the Clinton years. Jobs are constantly being created due to his tax policy. The economy is expected to continue to grow at a better than expected rate.

 Well here’s where I see the structure being set to game the system. The real deficit will be higher than expected due to rising oil prices. The economic growth numbers will fall along with the job gains revision. Let’s be real with large companies like Chrysler reporting it has to cut more jobs than expected and other large companies still in negotiations how can there be reported job gains. This great strong growing economy is just a figment of the build George Bush legacy imagination. China basically owns half of America with its debt holdings, while the true debt continues to rise at an alarming rate. Job gains statistics are being used to bolster economic conversation.

Creating $10 dollar an hour jobs to replace $30 an hour jobs does not make for a strong economy or a comfortable means of living. This economy was built on a false premise due to predatory lending, lower interest rates, and cash out refinances. Getting equity out of your home became easy as getting a $500 limit credit card. Consumer buying will soon be at its lowest level in years. The rise in foreclosure is real. People are searching to find ways and means to save their homes. Appraisers did a lot of injustice to society by inflating home prices. A lot of people are facing a disastrous life due to cash out refinancing and home equity loans. There are people stuck with $500,000 mortgages on $350,000 homes. Selling is not an option and refinancing to get cash or equity out is no longer available. Wall Street will survive because there will more rate cuts regardless of what the chairman stated. True numbers on job growth and unemployment will come to light. The administration will be asking for a debt ceiling increase to fund an unnecessary war and budget shortfalls. We the American people will be left on the sideline searching for ways to make ends meet to sustain our lives, while Wall Street and the Government survive by Gaming the system.  

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